Consumer confidence in Central Asia, in March 2024: new records and falls.
For the ninth month, Freedom Finance Global has been studying consumer confidence, inflation and devaluation expectations of residents of four Central Asian countries, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. March 2024 showed different results, and in some aspects, there was recovery from the February deterioration.
It should be noted that in March, the sharp deterioration in consumer confidence was recorded in Kazakhstan, where the index fell below 100 points, which indicates a predominance of negative responses over positive ones. Noticeable decrease also occurred in Tajikistan, but the index there was already very high. At the same time, in Kyrgyzstan, there is continuation of previous indicators, and in Uzbekistan, there is sharp recovery in consumer confidence after the February fall. Inflation expectations and perceptions in all of the above countries, except Kyrgyzstan, generally showed a noticeable improvement. At the same time, the small increase in Kyrgyzstan is not significant, since the indicators there are already among the lowest in Central Asia. Tajikistan and Kazakhstan are also seeing improvement in inflation expectations and sentiments following the February rise.
Since July 2023, in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, analysts have been collecting 3,600 questionnaires monthly, in Kyrgyzstan - 1,600 questionnaires, in Tajikistan - 1,200 questionnaires, commensurate with the size of the population in the countries studied. The research is based on the methodology used to obtain consumer confidence indices in many countries around the world and adapted to local needs by the research company United Research Technologies Group. The data collection method is a telephone survey. The survey questionnaire is adapted, the study is conducted in the native language of the respondents.
Kazakhstan
The consumer confidence index (CCI) in Kazakhstan fell for the fourth time in a row in March, and the decline turned out to be quite sharp. For the first time, since June 2023, the consumer confidence index in the Republic of Kazakhstan was in the negative zone below 100 points, that is, the share of negative responses exceeded the share of positive responses. The index reached 95.1 points in March, immediately falling by 5.6 points. Assessments and expectations of the economic situation among the surveyed Kazakhstanis deteriorated the most.
Sharp deterioration in economic assessments
In March, the subindex of changes in the economic situation in the Republic of Kazakhstan over the previous 12 months decreased sharply (by 11 points). The subindex reached 66.2 points, which is a new anti-record for all 19 months of data collection (in Kazakhstan, the study has been conducted since 2022). Only 12.1% of Kazakhstanis believe that the economy of Kazakhstan has shown improvement over the past year. While 53.2% of respondents did not agree with them. In February, the shares were 17.6% and 43.7%, respectively. A strong deterioration in results is observed in all age groups, except for people 45-59 years old, who largely retained their opinion about the economy. Young people under 29 years of age continue to be the leader among age groups, but it is among them that the largest increase in the share of negative responses is observed: from 35 to 46.1%. While the other three age groups show a similar result with a 55% share of negative answers.
Regionally, the sharpest negative dynamics are observed in three regions at once: Abay, Mangistau and Aktobe regions. In these regions, relative to February, the share of negative responses increased by +29 p.p., +28 p.p. and +26 p.p., respectively. As a result, the worst results are recorded in the Aktobe region, where exactly two-thirds of residents negatively assess changes in the economy over the past 12 months. The best result is shown by the Turkestan region, where the same figure is 40.7%, and the share of positive responses is 20.6%.
Economic forecasts have become more disappointing
The subindex of expected changes in the economic situation over a one-year horizon also fell sharply in March by 7.7 points, reaching 122.3. This is significantly less than the average for the period July 2023 - February 2024 of 131.5 points, but still noticeably higher than it was in the first half of 2023. In March, the share of Kazakhstanis who gave a positive answer regarding the economic prospects for the coming year decreased from 54.1 to 49.7%.
In terms of age, three groups, at once, showed sharp decrease in the index. The share of positive responses fell the most among people aged 30 to 44 years, from 54.6 to 48.5%. Young people under 29 years old again responded better than others, among whom 59.4% were optimistic about economic prospects. While the age groups 45–59 years and over 60 years old gave almost the same result - slightly more than 45%.
Regionally, a sharp decline in the share of optimists in the economy is observed in the Abay, Kyzylorda and Ulytau regions. In these regions, the positivity rate for March decreased by 31, 20 and 18 percentage points, respectively. The leader, as well as the issue of actual changes in the economy, is the Turkestan region, where 63.7% of respondents positively assess the prospects for the economy in the next 12 months. The Akmola region showed the best positive dynamics in March, where 4 percentage points more people gave a positive answer. The Karaganda region became an outsider in March with a 40.8% share of positive responses.
Inflation expectations and perceptions have decreased again
Inflation expectations and feelings among residents of Kazakhstan generally decreased and approached record low January values. Over the past month, 44.2% of residents (47.1% in February) noticed a strong increase in prices. This result was the lowest for the entire study. But over a one-year horizon, the decline in the share of those who noted an acceleration in price growth was not so large: from 60.1 to 58.8%, which is only 0.5 percentage points higher than the record low value set in January.
Inflation expectations over the one-month horizon also became lower. The share of people expecting strong price increases fell from 18.5 to 17.5%. However, this is 1.6 percentage points higher than in January. Expectations for price growth to accelerate over the next 12 months rose slightly from 20.4% to 21.2%, the third lowest in the last 12 months of the survey. In general, taking into account the results for the first three months of 2024, it can be said that the population’s concerns regarding actual and expected price increases have decreased significantly compared to 2023.
A similar study by the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan on inflation perceptions and expectations showed the same dynamics. According to this study, the share of those expecting strong price increases during the year increased from 24 to 24.7%. At the same time, over a one-month horizon, the indicator fell from 21.3 to 19.5%. Inflationary feelings also decreased both in the horizon of one month and one year.
Among separate goods and services, the Kazakhstanis continue to be most concerned about prices for basic types of food products, such as “meat and poultry,” “milk and dairy products,” “vegetables and fruits,” and “bread and bakery products.” These products continued to occupy the top four spots among respondents for the fifth month in a row. At the same time, in March, slightly more people than in February noted these goods as showing the most noticeable price increase. “Housing and communal services” continues to gain momentum in the study. In March, 22% of respondents noticed a strong increase in prices for housing and communal services, which is a new record. In February this figure was 18.3%, and in January 12.5%. In March, according to official statistics, housing and communal services continued to rise in price, with a monthly increase of 1.7%. Overall, over the past year, average price growth has reached 15.9%, which is a record high over the past 12 months.
Devaluation expectations showed slight increase
The devaluation expectations of Kazakhstanis in March increased slightly compared to February. And this despite the fact that during this period the tenge strengthened against the dollar by about 0.9%. According to the survey, the share of the Kazakhstanis expecting weakening of the tenge in a one-year horizon increased from 50.5 to 52.7%, and in a one-month horizon remained unchanged at 29.3%. And yet, these values are noticeably lower than in September, when there were strong fluctuations on the foreign exchange market.
The credit confidence index increased by 0.4 points and remains in a stable range of 34–37 points, which has been recorded for the ninth month in a row. The share of the Kazakhstanis who believe that now is a bad time to get loans decreased from 51.8 to 51%. At the same time, the share of those who believe that now is a good time to keep money on deposit fell from 32.4 to 31.6%, which is a record low for the entire study since July 2023.
The level of calm among the Kazakhstanis dropped sharply in March and reached record lows for the entire period of the study. 49.3% of residents of Kazakhstan note that now is a calm time rather than an alarming one (54% in February). At the same time, 47.1% chose negative answer options, which is significantly higher than in February, when this figure reached 41.6%. Expectations for single-year unemployment growth continued to rise for the second month in a row. If in February 41% of residents expected it to increase, then in March the figure was 42.6%, which is also a record figure for the entire period of the study.
Uzbekistan
The consumer confidence index of Uzbek citizens in March 2024 almost completely recovered after a sharp drop in February. The index rose 5.7 points in March, reaching 135.8 points, which is only 1.1 points below the record value set in January. Growth is observed in all five subindices, but assessments of the favorableness of current conditions for large purchases have improved especially strongly.
More people view conditions favorably for large purchases
The subindex of the favorableness of current conditions for large purchases rose sharply by 8.2 points, reaching 88.8 at the end of March. 42.2% of residents of Uzbekistan considered that now is a favorable time for large purchases, while in February their share was only 38.2%. Improvement in results occurs in all four age groups. It is most noticeable among respondents 45–59 years old, the share of positive answers among whom increased from 34.3 to 41.3%. Nevertheless, young people under 29 continue to remain the leader - 46.6% of them chose positive answers.
Regionally, the strongest improvement in indicators is recorded in Andijan and Jizzakh regions. In these regions, the share of people who note that current conditions are favorable for large purchases increased by 13 and 11 percentage points, respectively. The best region in March is the Navoi region, where 47.9% of respondents gave a positive answer and the same number gave a negative answer. This region has become the only region where the share of negative responses does not exceed the share of positive ones. The February leader, Khorezm region, immediately lost 8 points due to a decrease in the share of positive responses by 4.6 percentage points. The Syrdarya region becomes an outsider in March, where only 32.8% of respondents note favorable conditions for large purchases.
Restoring assessments of changes in personal material situation
The subindex of changes in personal material situation over the past 12 months rose by 6.4 points, recovering most of the losses in February. As a result, the subindex reached a level of 136.5 points. The share of positive answers among residents of Uzbekistan increased by 5 percentage points: from 58.5 to 63.5%, showing a complete recovery of this value. The greatest increase in positivity is observed among those over 60 years old. Among them, this figure increased from 47.5 to 55.8%. Thus, the older generation has significantly reduced the gap from other age groups, although they remain the most pessimistic in the survey of improvements in their personal material situation. Young people under 29 years of age again respond best of all in March. Among them, 72% were optimists in March, while in February there were 67.2%.
The regional profile again shows a significant improvement in results in the Andijan region, as well as in Tashkent, where the share of those who positively assessed the improvement in their personal material situation increased by 10.5 and 10.8 percentage points, respectively. Also, a noticeable improvement is recorded in Namangan (+7.1 p.p.) and Samarkand (+7.3 p.p.) regions. The best indicator is observed in the Khorezm region, where 70.6% of respondents gave a positive answer. While Tashkent is again at the bottom of the ranking with a score of 55.3%, despite significant progress in March.
Inflationary perceptions have decreased noticeably
Inflation assessments and expectations of residents of Uzbekistan generally decreased slightly in March. The most noticeable decline occurred in inflation estimates. Thus, over the one-year horizon, a very strong increase in prices was felt by 42.8% versus 44.4% in February. The March result was only 0.1 percentage point higher than the record low set in August 2023, before a sharp rise in flour prices. The share of those who noticed a strong increase in prices over the past month also decreased. The share indicator fell from 22.3 to 20.3%, which is a new minimum for the entire period of the study. In terms of inflation expectations, the decline was not so noticeable. The share of those expecting a strong rise in prices next month fell slightly – from 12.9 to 12.2%. On the other hand, over the one-year horizon, inflation expectations of Uzbek citizens have increased slightly. If in February 26.3% of residents expected faster growth during the year, then, in March, this share was 26.4%.
One notes that officially inflation, in February, was 0.67% in monthly terms. Monthly inflation, in March, has not been this low since 2016. In annual terms, it fell from 8.35 to 7.98%, which is also a new record low for the last eight years. The top 3 most expensive individual food products, according to the respondents of this study, have not changed for the fourth month in a row. The leaders continue to be meat and poultry, prices for which are worried by 45% of Uzbek citizens, which is slightly less than in February. Gasoline and fuels and lubricants are still in second place, for which 28.1% of respondents noticed a strong increase in prices. Fewer Uzbek respondents also began to worry about flour prices. In March, there were 25.1% of them, which is 4.3 percentage points less than in February. Official data indicate that gasoline prices increased in March by only 0.1% against 1.1% in February, and propane even fell in price by 3.3%, although in February a price increase of 1.4% was recorded. Over the past 12 months, these two types of fuel and lubricants have risen in price by 25.2 and 12.4%, respectively. Also in March, meat prices decreased slightly according to official statistics. Beef fell in price by 0.2%, and lamb by 0.1%. Whereas for wheat flour, a monthly price increase of 0.9% is recorded, although over the last year the price increase was only 1.1%.
Restoring credit and deposit trust
In March, devaluation expectations of residents of Uzbekistan generally showed a slight decline. The share of those expecting the som to weaken against the dollar over the next 12 months fell from a record 71.6% in February to 70.2%. Over the one-month horizon, the share of pessimists continued to grow for the second month in a row: from 51.6 to 51.8%. On the foreign exchange market, the dollar continued to grow against the som. The dollar's 1.1% rise in March was the largest since August 2023.
Credit confidence showed a recovery in March after a noticeable drop in February. The number of those who note that now is a good time for loans increased from 31.6% in February to 34.8% in March. The deposit index also recorded an almost complete recovery. The index rose from 57.1 to 59.9 points, which is only 0.6 points below the January record. 41.7% of Uzbek citizens (38.4% in February) believe that now is a good time for deposits. Calm levels, in March, also showed an almost complete recovery and return to January levels. If in February 76.9% of residents said that now is, one way or another, a quiet time, then in March the share of such answers increased to 80.5%. On the other hand, an increase in pessimism regarding unemployment is again recorded: the share of those expecting it to increase during the year increased from 40.6% in February to 41.4% in March.
Kyrgyzstan
In Kyrgyzstan, the consumer confidence index in March increased slightly by 0.2 points, amounting to 128 points. In general, multidirectional dynamics can be seen across the subindices. For example, residents of Kyrgyzstan assess their actual and expected personal material situation more positively, while there is an increase in pessimism regarding changes and expectations of economic prospects.
Personal material situation showed recovery
The subindex of assessments of changes in personal material situation increased by 2.5 points – to 124.1 points. We can say that this subindex showed partial normalization after a sharp drop in February, when it reached its minimum for the entire period of the study. The share of those who positively assess the change in their personal material situation over the past 12 months increased from 44 to 45.8%. Among age groups, the greatest growth was shown by youth under 29 years of age, among whom the share of positive responses increased from 53 to 56%.
This figure also increased noticeably among respondents aged 30–44 years: from 40 to 43%. Young people under 29 years of age continue to be the leader, while among the oldest generation over 60 years of age there is a drop in the share of positive answers from 40 to 38.6%. Regionally, a sharp increase in positivity compared to February is recorded in three regions at once: Naryn (+25 p.p.), Batken (+12 p.p.), Chuy (+8 p.p.). However, by a slight margin, the highest regional index is again observed in the Osh region, where 30% of people gave a clear positive answer, and only 2% a clear negative answer to the question about changes in their personal material situation. The Chuy region, which took last place in February, was again replaced by Bishkek, where the total share of positive responses reaches only 38%, which is significantly lower than the national values.
Economic assessments deteriorated slightly
The subindex of changes in the economic situation in Kyrgyzstan decreased by 2.5 points and reached 130.4 points, which is the lowest value since November last year. Nevertheless, this value shows that the majority of residents positively assessed changes in the economy over the past year, although the share of such people in March decreased from 56.8 to 54.7%. The greatest increase in pessimism is observed among residents aged 30 to 44 years. The percentage of positive responses among these respondents fell from 52.6 to 51.6%, while the percentage of negative responses rose sharply from 14.8 to 19.4%. This age group turned out to be an outsider, and the best results continue to be shown by the older generation over 60 years old, among whom the share of optimists is 63%, which, however, is slightly less than in February – 66%. In regional terms, we note a sharp decline in indicators in the Osh region, where the share of positive responses fell from 66 to 57%. On the other hand, in the Issyk-Kul and Naryn regions a sharp increase in the same indicator is recorded. In the first case from 49 to 65%, and in the second from 51 to 59%. Despite the excellent result of the Issyk-Kul region, the leader in March was the Jalal-Abad region, where 70.4% of residents positively assessed economic changes in the country over the past year.
Slight increase in inflationary perceptions
Inflation assessments and expectations of the Kyrgyzstanis increased slightly in March. The most noticeable increase was in the feeling of rising prices over the past month. If in February 26.8% felt a very strong increase in prices, then in March the same number increased to 29.2%. However, this figure is still the second lowest for the entire study. Also, estimates of price growth over the past 12 months increased at a more insignificant pace. In March, 52.6% of the Kyrgyzstanis noted an acceleration in price growth; in February, this figure was 1.3 percentage points less. It should be noted that official inflation in the country accelerated in March for the first time after five consecutive months of slowdown. Annual inflation increased slightly from 5.1 to 5.2%, which may have affected the respondents’ feelings. However, monthly inflation decreased relative to February.
Inflation expectations of the Kyrgyzstanis also increased slightly, but still remain among the lowest in Central Asia. The share of respondents expecting prices to rise faster over the next 12 months increased from 10.7% to 11.8%. However, the share of those who believe that prices will rise very strongly remained unchanged at 6.3% next month.
Among individual commodities, we note that the Kyrgyzstanis continue to be most concerned about the price of flour. 54.4% of respondents noted this particular product, the price increase for which was the most noticeable. True, this figure, although slowly, has been declining for the third month in a row. In general, the top 5 goods for which the largest price increases are noticeable have not changed for the seventh month in a row. 47.3% of respondents noted vegetable oil, 35.4% - vegetables and fruits, 34.7% - sugar and salt, and 33.8% - meat and poultry. However, an increase in the indicator is observed only for vegetable oil. On the other hand, according to official statistics, prices for oils and fats over the past year have decreased by 8.7%, for sugar, jam, honey and chocolate - by 4.6%, and for vegetables - by 13%. But fruit prices increased by 20.7% over the year.
Growth of devaluation expectations, anxiety and concerns about unemployment
In March, the Kyrgyz som continued to remain at the same level against the dollar, which increased by only 0.06%. However, according to a survey of the Kyrgyzstanis, devaluation expectations increased slightly in March. If in February 28.2% of residents expected the som to weaken in a year, then in March the share of these sharply increased to 32.6%. This figure is the highest since November. Regarding the growth of the dollar in the horizon of one month, the increase in the share of pessimists was not so significant: from 15.3 to 16.7%, which is not higher than the indicators for the second half of 2023.
The population's credit confidence has been improving for the second month in a row, reaching the highest values for the entire period of the study. Over the month, the share of those who believe that the current situation is favorable for obtaining loans increased from 22 to 24.9%. Deposit confidence of the Kyrgyzstanis decreased slightly. The share of positive responses fell from 28.1% in February to 27% in March. True, the share of negative answers also fell: from 15.7 to 15.1%. The level of calm among the population decreased for the second month in a row. 59.8% of residents believe that now is a calm time, while 27.2% are anxious. Last month these figures were 61.4% and 24.8%, respectively. Residents' expectations for an increase in unemployment are also rising for the second month in a row. 33.2% of residents expect it to increase, while in the previous month there were 27.7%.
Tajikistan
The consumer confidence index in Tajikistan in March showed a significant decline for the first time in three months, from 149 to 146 points. All five subindices showed a decline, but the assessments of changes in the economy and personal material situation over the past 12 months decreased the most. However, Tajikistan's performance continues to be the highest in Central Asia and the current result is still very high with a large proportion of positive results.
Worsening of economic assessments
The largest drop among all subindexes was shown by the question related to the assessment of changes in the economic situation over the past 12 months. This subindex fell from 170.7 to 164.9 points, which is the lowest value since October last year. The share of positive answers from respondents decreased from 81.9 to 78.4%. In terms of age, the greatest decrease in this indicator is observed in the group of people 30–44 years old, from 82.6 to 77.3%. Other age groups also showed a noticeable decrease in the proportion of positive responses, but overall the difference between them is still not that big. This time the older generation over 60 years of age responded best, among whom 81.2% were optimists.
The worst result is recorded among people aged 45–59 years – 76.9%, which is nevertheless slightly less than the average result for the republic. In regional terms, the only one that was positive in March was Dushanbe, where the share of respondents who positively assessed changes in the economy increased from 75 to 77.9%. The largest decrease is observed in areas of republican significance, where the same indicator decreased from 86% to 76.4%. As a result, the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region became the leader, where almost 88% of residents positively assess changes in the economic situation.
Fewer people perceive improvements in their personal material situation
Another subindex, concerning changes in personal matrial situation over the past 12 months, decreased by 3.3 points. In March, it reached 142.4 points, which is also the lowest value since October 2023. The share of positive answers among all Tajik citizens fell from 65.8% in February to 63.2% in March. The largest decrease is again recorded among people aged 30 to 44 years, for whom this figure fell from 62.5 to 57.9%. Also, a noticeable decrease in the share of positive variants is recorded among young people under 29 years of age (–1.6 p.p.). True, this age group retains its leadership with a result of 73.4%. The age group 45–59 years old responded worse than the rest, among which 56.8% note an improvement in their personal financial situation over the past 12 months. In terms of the regions, Dushanbe again differs positively, where the share of positive responses increased from 57.9 to 59.4%. But despite this, the capital continues to remain an outsider in this matter. The sharpest deterioration in the indicator is recorded in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region, from 84.4 to 75.7%. Nevertheless, this region retains its leadership with such a result.
Declining of inflation assessments and expectations
Inflation assessments and expectations of Tajik citizens generally showed a decline in March. In Central Asia, Tajikistan's inflation indicators are among the lowest, especially regarding estimates and perceptions over a 12-month horizon. And this is despite the fact that the share of respondents who noted a strong increase in prices over the past month increased slightly from 20.1 to 21.2%. Over the past 12 months, the share of those who experienced a faster rise in prices, on the contrary, fell from 26.2 to 25.4%.
Inflation expectations of residents of Tajikistan decreased over both time frames. 10.7% of residents expect a very strong rise in prices in the coming month, while in February there were 10.9%. Over a one-year horizon, the share of people expecting prices to rise faster fell from 11.9% to 9.3%, the lowest level in the entire study.
Official inflation data for March has not yet been released, but annual inflation fell from 3.8% to 3.6% in February. Among individual commodities, prices for flour continue to worry residents of Tajikistan the most. 41.1% of respondents chose flour as the product for which the price increase was most noticeable, and this share increased slightly in March. We also note a sharp increase in the share of those who noticed a strong increase in prices for “meat and poultry” (+7.5 p.p.) and “vegetables and fruits” (+5 p.p.). In March, 31.2% and 25.8% of Tajik residents, respectively, noticed a strong increase in prices for these food products. At the same time, in February the official rise in prices for meat and fruits accelerated. Thus, for meat and meat products, annual inflation accelerated from 3.2 to 3.6%, for beef from 4.9 to 6.4%, and for fruits from 34 to 35%.
Reduction of devaluation expectations to record low levels
Devaluation expectations in Tajikistan decreased in March compared to February. Let us note that the dollar exchange rate against the somoni has continued to remain at almost the same levels for the last 13 months. The share of those who expect the national currency to weaken remained at the same level at 15.6% during the month. However, in the one-year horizon, 22.9% of the country’s population expects weakening (24.7% in February), which is the lowest value for the entire period of the study.
The credit and deposit confidence indices again showed multidirectional movements. 30.3% of the country's residents believe that now is a good time to get loans, while in February this was 28.1%. On deposits, on the contrary, there is an increase in the share of negative responses. 15.6% of respondents in March versus 13.5% note that now is rather a bad time to open deposits. The level of calm has decreased slightly: 85.5% of residents say that now is a calm time, while in February this was 87.2%. Unemployment expectations rose sharply, with increases occurring for the second month in a row. 31.7% of respondents expect an increase in unemployment compared to 24.6% in February. However, this figure is noticeably lower than it was in July–October 2023.
Conclusions
March 2024 turned out to be a generally complex month for Central Asian countries, in terms of changes in the consumer confidence index (CCI). In two countries (Kazakhstan, Tajikistan), there was a noticeable decrease in the CCI index, while interpretation of this dynamics for these countries is rather completely different. Kazakhstan again found itself below the neutral limit of 100 points, while Tajikistan continues to be in the lead. At the same time, in Uzbekistan, on the contrary, there was a rather sharp recovery in indicators after the February fall. While, in Kyrgyzstan, the CCI index remained at the same level.
In Kazakhstan, there is another, fourth month in a row, decline in the consumer confidence index. For the first time since June 2023, it was below 100 points, which indicates a predominance of negative responses over positive ones in the five main questions that make up the index. The assessments and forecasts of the Kazakhstanis, regarding changes in the economy fell especially sharply. These are the issues that traditionally worry the Kazakhstanis greatly, unlike residents of other countries in the region. If, according to forecasts of economic prospects, the result turned out to be much higher than absolute minimums, then in the question of how the economy of Kazakhstan has changed over the previous 12 months, an anti-record is observed.
In Tajikistan, although the decrease in the CCI index was also noticeable, the final result still remains significantly above 100 points. The vast majority of respondents in this country choose positive responses to survey questions. Although we still note that the CCI index has not been this low for Tajikistan, since September 2023. In Kyrgyzstan, the index practically remained at the same level, showing a slight increase. A peculiarity of this country in March was that more residents began to positively assess and predict changes in their personal material situation, but at the same time, they became less optimistic in matters of economic prospects. At the same time, in Uzbekistan, there is almost complete recovery of the consumer confidence index in all parameters after a sharp decline in February. That is, apparently, the February decline turned out to be a one-time phenomenon, and we will learn about this more accurately based on the results of April.
Inflation assessments and expectations of residents of Central Asian countries, as a whole, show a decline after a slight halt in the fall in February. In all countries except Kyrgyzstan, a decrease in inflation indicators is observed. However, Kyrgyzstan already has one of the best inflation indicators in Central Asia, along with Tajikistan, so the slight increase after the February fall is unlikely to be a significant event. But in Kazakhstan, where inflation perceptions and expectations increased slightly in February, decrease and reverse improvement in results were recorded in almost all parameters. This adds confidence to the thesis that inflation expectations and perceptions of the Kazakhstanis have shown a qualitative step down. A similar story is observed in Tajikistan, where, after a slight increase in February, the decrease in inflation indicators is observed. In turn, in Uzbekistan, the downward trend recorded over the past few months continued, reaching new record lows against the backdrop of the lowest inflation in the last eight years.
Devaluation expectations in Central Asian countries also showed multidirectional movements in March. The largest increase is observed in Kyrgyzstan, where the share of those who expect the som to weaken during the year has risen sharply. The figure was the second highest for the entire study. The devaluation expectations increased both in Kazakhstan and also in the one-year horizon. True, the figure is still noticeably lower than it was in the fall, when the dollar-tenge exchange rate showed greater volatility. In Uzbekistan, the relatively noticeable rise in the dollar in March did not lead to any sharp increase in devaluation expectations. Perhaps, this happened against the backdrop of the fact that more than 70% of residents expect the som to weaken within one year. Tajikistan became the only state in the region that showed a decrease in devaluation expectations in March.
At the same time, in matters of inflation expectations and perceptions, there is consolidation of the qualitative step down, which was recorded in January. On the other hand, again, certain goods and services continue to worry respondents. In Kazakhstan, there is growing concern about rising prices for housing and communal services, in Uzbekistan there remains concern about gasoline and fuels and lubricants, and in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan about flour prices.
The ninth wave of research of the consumer confidence in four Central Asian countries shows desynchronization of optimism in different countries on various issues. The single February drop may have been a one-time decline for Uzbekistan, where the index has almost fully recovered. But at the same time, for Kazakhstan this was only continuation of the trend towards declining the consumer confidence. Whether Kazakhstan will be able to reverse this trend in the coming months, and whether the decline in Tajikistan is the beginning of some downward dynamics, will be the main topics for study in the next waves of research.
Daniyar Orazbayev, the Analyst of Freedom Finance Global
