For the eighth month, Freedom Finance Global has been studying consumer confidence, inflation and devaluation expectations of residents of Central Asian countries, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. February 2024 showed interesting results, which somewhat coincided with January.
Thus, in February, widespread deterioration in consumer confidence was recorded in Central Asia. This is especially noticeable in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. The latter came close to the neutral border, ending up just above 100 points. On the other hand, formally, in all four countries the share of positive answers still prevails over negative ones, and in Tajikistan the difference between them is very significant. Inflation expectations and perceptions, which fell sharply in January overall, remained at the same levels. At the same time, consolidating success with minor reservations in the form of certain goods and services that have become more expensive and countries where there is a slight increase in inflationary pessimism among residents.
In Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, analysts collect 3,600 questionnaires, monthly, in Kyrgyzstan – 1,600 questionnaires, in Tajikistan – 1,200 questionnaires, commensurate with the population size in the countries studied. The research is based on the methodology used to obtain consumer confidence indices in many countries around the world and adapted to local needs by the research company, United Research Technologies Group. The data collection method is a telephone survey. The survey questionnaire is localized, the study is conducted in the native language of the respondents.
Kazakhstan
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in Kazakhstan showed a decline for the third month in a row in February. This time, the index came very close to the neutral line of 100 points, being only 0.7 points above it. Compared to February 2023, the index also turned out to be slightly higher. The index decreased by 2.5 points in February, largely due to increased pessimism around the favorableness of current conditions for large purchases and forecasts regarding economic prospects in the one-year horizon.
Favorable conditions for large purchases at a minimum
The subindex of favorableness of current conditions for large purchases and expenses decreased by 3.6 points, reaching 66 points, which is a record low for the entire 18 months of data collection. Only 27.4% of Kazakhstanis said in February that now is somehow a favorable time for major purchases. A month earlier this figure was 28.7%.
It is interesting to note that among age groups, young people under 29 went against the general trend. If in January 37% of young people were optimistic, then in February this became 41%. While in older age groups, the proportion of positive answers, on the contrary, decreased. For example, among the most pessimistic group “over 60 years old”, this share fell from 22 to 18%.
Regionally, there were also those who went against the general trend. The most notable regions in this regard were the Mangistau region, the Abai region and the Aktobe region. In these areas, the share of positive responses in February increased by 11, 4 and 2 percentage points, respectively. The greatest regression was shown by the Atyrau region, where the same indicator fell from 39 to 23%. However, the worst regional indicator with a slight difference is recorded in the Kostanai region, where the share of those who believe that now favorable conditions for large purchases is only 22%.
Groups assess economic prospects differently
The subindex of expected changes in the economic situation over a one-year horizon in February decreased by 3.2 points, reaching 129.9 points. This was the lowest result since July 2023 and generally stands out from the overall picture of the previous six months, when the average value of the subindex was 135.4 points. In February, 54.1% of Kazakhstanis gave a positive answer regarding economic prospects for the coming year. We note that this is slightly less than in January, when there were 55.4%.
And again, young people under 29 show an increase in optimism. The percentage of positive responses from this age group increased from 57 to 61%. People aged 45–59 responded worst. Among them, the same share was only 50%, which is 5 percentage points less than in January. We also note the dynamics against the trend among rural residents, among whom the share of positive responses increased from 57 to 58%, while among urban residents it fell from 54 to 51%.
In regional terms, the greatest movement against the downward trend was shown by the Ulytau region, the Mangistau region, the Abai region and the Kyzylorda region. In these areas, the share of those who believe that the economy will improve within one year increased by 16, 13, 12, 12 percentage points, respectively. The leader in February was the Kyzylorda region with a result of 71%, which is significantly higher than the national figure. The worst dynamics were shown by the Zhetysu region, where the share of positive responses fell from 61 to 45%. However, the worst final result is observed in the Pavlodar region, where 48% of residents gave a positive answer, and 19% negative, which is noticeably higher than in the Zhetysu region.
Confidence in personal financial growth has decreased
Also in February, the subindex of expectations for changes in personal financial situation fell noticeably. The share of Kazakhstanis who believe that their financial situation will improve during the year continues to decline: 48.8% versus 51.6% in January. And in this matter, young people show optimism regarding other ages. The share of optimists among them increased from 66 to 70%. On the other hand, only 27% of older people (35% in January) over 60 years old gave a positive answer to this question.
Regionally, the most noticeable improvement in results was shown by Shymkent, where the share of positive responses increased from 52 to 57%. Nevertheless, the Kyzylorda region continues to remain the leader, where the same figure reaches 62%. On the other hand, the greatest regression in February was shown by the Mangistau region and the Karaganda region. In these regions, the share of optimists fell by 13 and 8 percentage points. The Kostanai region, which previously occupied the penultimate place, became an outsider in the regional ranking. In this area, 31% of respondents are optimistic about their personal future.
Inflation expectations and feelings increased slightly
Inflation expectations and feelings among the Kazakhstan residents have increased slightly since record lows were set in January. 47.1% of residents (45.4% in January) noticed a strong increase in prices during February. This is still significantly less than it was in February 2023, when annual inflation peaked. Then this share was 62.4%. Over the one-year horizon, the share of those who noted an acceleration in price growth increased from 58.3 to 60.1%, thereby losing all the progress achieved in November–January.
Inflation expectations over the one-month horizon showed the most noticeable growth. The share of people expecting strong price increases increased from 15.9 to 18.5%. However, this is the second lowest result over the past nine months. Expectations for accelerated price growth over the next 12 months increased slightly from 19.6 to 20.4%, which is also significantly lower than the figures recorded during 2023. True, a year ago this same share was higher by only one percentage point. That is, over the year, inflation expectations fell slightly, but when compared with the summer and autumn months, the population’s concern about future price increases has nevertheless decreased.
A similar study by the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan on inflation feelings and expectations also showed a slight change in key indicators. According to this study, the share of those expecting a strong price increase during the year decreased from 24.7 to 24%. At the same time, over a one-month horizon, the indicator increased from 19 to 21.3%, which is higher than in spring and summer.
Among individual goods and services, Kazakhstanis continue to be most concerned about prices for basic types of food products, such as meat and poultry, milk and dairy products, bread and bakery products, vegetables and fruits. This four has remained unchanged over the past four months. Nevertheless, compared to January, on average, 3.2 percentage points fewer respondents noted the above-mentioned food products. A strong increase in the share is noted for housing and communal services, an increase in prices for which was noticed by 18.3% of Kazakhstanis compared to 12.5% in January. It is interesting to note that it was housing and communal services that became the main driver of the acceleration of monthly inflation in February. Let us remind you that in February monthly inflation reached 1.1% compared to 0.8% in January. At the same time, the average increase in prices for paid services was 1.7% m/m, which is the highest February value over the past 10 years. It's no surprising that fewer and fewer people are noticing rising food prices. The rise in food prices in February reached 0.8% m/m, which is the lowest February figure in five years.
Devaluation expectations showed a slight increase
The devaluation expectations of Kazakhstanis in February increased slightly compared to January. At the same time, in February the tenge weakened against the dollar by only 0.3%. As a result, the share of Kazakhstanis expecting a weakening of the tenge in a one-year horizon increased from 47.6 to 50.5%, and in a one-month horizon – from 27.1 to 29.3%. However, these figures are still lower than those recorded in August–December 2023.
The credit confidence index fell by 0.6 points and continues to remain in a stable range of 34–37 points, which has been recorded for the eighth month in a row. The share of Kazakhstanis who believe that now is a bad time to get loans increased from 49.5 to 51.8%. At the same time, the share of those who think that now is a good time to save money decreased much more noticeably: from 35.8 to 32.4%. This result was the lowest since September 2023.
The level of calm fell slightly in February. 54% of residents of Kazakhstan note that now is a calm time rather than an alarming one (55.5% in January). Nevertheless, the share of those who chose a clearly positive answer increased by 3.9 percentage points, which noticeably compensated for the decrease in the overall level of calm. Expectations for unemployment growth within one year have increased slightly. If in January 39.1% of residents expected it to increase, then in February this figure reached 41%.
Uzbekistan
The consumer confidence index of Uzbek citizens in February 2024 fell sharply after a record January, reaching exactly 130 points, which is nevertheless one and a half points above the minimum. The index fell by 6.9 points in February, and a decline was observed in all of its five components. The greatest increase in negativity can be seen in assessments and prospects of the economy, as well as in assessments of changes in personal financial situation. That is, far fewer Uzbek citizens began to give positive answers to these questions regarding January.
Economic valuations plummet
The subindex of assessments of changes in the economy over the past 12 months showed the largest decline among all components, falling from 135.1 to 125.7 points. Only 53.8% of residents thought that the economic situation had improved, while in January this figure was 60.1%. Such a sharp decline is noticeable in all four age categories. But the number of optimists decreased the most in the oldest age group, over 60 years old. If in January we received positive answers from 64% of respondents in this group, then in February the figure dropped to 55.8%. And even despite this, the older generation continues to be the most optimistic in February. Young people under 29 years of age again answer this question worse than others, among whom slightly less than half (49.7%) gave a positive answer. In January, the share of positive responses from this group reached 56.5%.
Regionally, four regions opposed the negative trend, in two of which the regional subindex of the component did not decrease, and in the other two the decrease was insignificant. The Republic of Karakalpakstan and the Navoi region stand out positively, where the share of positive responses increased from 59.8 to 66.1% and from 50.8 to 56.6%, respectively. Despite the high indicator of Karakalpakstan, the Khorezm region continues to be in the lead by a small margin, where the share of positive answers reached 60.4%, but as many as 41.3% of residents gave a clearly positive answer, which is 10 percentage points higher than in Karakalpakstan. The strongest regression was shown by residents of the Andijan region, where only 49.8% positively assessed changes in the economy, although a month ago the figure was 63.8%. The last place among the regions was again taken by Tashkent, where 36.6% of residents gave a positive answer, although in January there were much more of them (44.6%).
Expectations for changes in the economic situation over a 12-month horizon have also dropped significantly. The subindex fell 7.8 points to 154.6 points, which was the second worst result for the entire study. The share of Uzbek citizens who answered positively fell from 71.6 to 65.4%. The greatest decline among age groups is observed among residents 45–59 years old. Among them, the share of positive answers fell from 76.1 to 66.8%. The older generation went slightly against the trend, where the decline in this indicator was not so strong. If in January 72.2% had a positive assessment of the prospects for the economy, then in February this share dropped to only 70.2%, which is also the best indicator among all ages. Young people under 29 traditionally responded worst of all, among whom 62.7% were optimists.
Regionally, the decline is observed in all regions. It is least recorded in the capital, where the share of optimists fell from 60.8 to 59.9%. And even despite a much more significant decline in other regions, Tashkent continues to occupy last place in the ranking. The greatest regression occurred in the Kashkadarya region, where the same figure fell from 71.9 to 58.9%. The leading regions are the Andijan region and the Jizzakh region, where 70% and 69% of residents expect economic improvement in the next 12 months.
Deterioration of personal financial situation is recorded
The subindex of changes in personal financial situation over the past 12 months fell by 8.9 points. As a result, the indicator reached a level of 130.1 points. The share of positive answers among residents of Uzbekistan fell by five percentage points: from 63.5 to 58.5%. The greatest increase in negativity is observed in the age groups 45–59 years and those over 60 years old. In the first group, the share of respondents who answered positively fell from 60.8 to 54.8%, and in the second - from 52.9 to 47.5%. As a result, the older generation consolidated its status as an outsider, and young people under 29 are again the best at assessing changes in their personal financial situation. Among them, in February there were 67.2%, however, in January there were as many as 70.9%.
The regional profile shows that only the Republic of Karakalpakstan went against the negative trend, where the share of positive responses increased from 62.3 to 64.7%. Nevertheless, the best region by a clear margin from the rest was the Khorezm region with an indicator of 68.3%, which is 6 percentage points worse than in January. The largest drop in the share of positive responses is observed in the Andijan region: from 69.8 to 54.6%. Tashkent traditionally closes the ranking of regions, where only 44.5% of residents positively assessed changes in their personal financial situation.
Inflation expectations and estimates remained at the same levels
Inflation estimates and expectations of residents of Uzbekistan remained approximately at the same levels in February. We note the main decrease in inflation estimates over a one-year horizon, according to which the share of those who noticed an acceleration in price growth decreased from 46.7 to 44.4%. However, for other questions the change in indicators was not so significant. Thus, the share of those who noticed a strong increase in prices over the past month fell from 23.2 to 22.3%, which is still a new minimum for the entire period of the study. In terms of inflation expectations, the situation is similar. The share of those expecting a strong rise in prices next month increased slightly from 12.3 to 12.9%. On the other hand, over the one-year horizon, inflation expectations of Uzbek citizens fell slightly. If in January 27.4% of residents expected faster growth during the year, then in February this share fell to 26.3%. Still, this is a couple of percentage points above the minimum recorded in December.
Let us note that officially inflation in February amounted to 0.32% in monthly terms, which is two times less than in January and by 22 bp. p. lower than in last year’s February. As a result, annual inflation fell to 8.35%, which is a new record low over the past eight years. Among the respondents to this study, the top 3 most expensive individual food products, in their opinion, have not changed for the third month in a row. The leaders continue to be meat and poultry, prices for which are worried by 47% of Uzbek citizens, which is slightly less than in January. Gasoline and fuels and lubricants moved up to second place, for which 31.9% of respondents noticed a strong increase in prices. While flour prices continue to worry less and less people. In February, such numbers reached 29.4%, which is 1.5 percentage points less than in January. Official data shows gasoline rose 1.1% and propane rose 1.4% in February. As a result, over the past year, these goods have risen in price by 23.3% and 15.7%, respectively, which likely affects the mood of residents. In the other two commodities, officially beef and lamb prices fell 0.4% in February, while wheat flour prices fell 0.7% mom.
Noticeable increase in devaluation expectations
In February, devaluation expectations of residents of Uzbekistan increased noticeably. The share of those expecting the som to weaken against the dollar over the next 12 months rose from 68.8% in January to 71.6%, a new record. Over the one-month horizon, the share of pessimists increased even more significantly: from 46.7 to 51.6%. In general, the dollar continues to slowly grow against the som; in February, the exchange rate increased by 0.65%, reaching new highs.
Credit confidence fell in February after a record rise in January. The number of those who say now is a good time to take out loans fell from 35% in January to 31.6% in February. The deposit index also recorded a noticeable decline. The index fell from a record 60.5 to 57.1 points. Only 38.4% of Uzbek citizens (44.9% in January) believe that now is a good time for deposits. The level of calm in February also showed a noticeable decline after the excellent performance in January. If in January 81.5% of residents said that now is, one way or another, a quiet time, then in February the share of such answers fell to 76.9%. On the other hand, there is an increase in positivity regarding unemployment: the share of those expecting an increase in unemployment during the year fell from 41.7% in January to 40.6% in February.
Kyrgyzstan
In Kyrgyzstan, the consumer confidence index in February decreased by 5.3 points and reached 127.8 points. A drop in confidence among the population is also observed in all five sub-indices. The greatest increase in pessimism can be seen in questions of assessments and expectations of changes in personal financial situation, as well as in the question of the favorableness of current conditions for major purchases. Note that two of the three above-mentioned subindices reached their lowest values for the entire study period.
Personal financial situation shows downward dynamics
The subindex of assessments of changes in personal financial situation decreased by 8.5 points, to 121.6 points, which is the lowest figure in the eight months of the study. The share of those who positively assess the change in their personal financial situation over the past 12 months fell from 50.7 to 44%. The main factor behind the decline was the age group under 29 years old, among which the share of positive responses fell from 64 to 53%. Nevertheless, young people still show the best results among all age groups. The other three groups show a roughly similar percentage of positive responses: 40–41%. Regionally, Osh stands out, where the share of those who noticed an improvement in their personal financial situation increased from 42 to 45%. While in the following four regions there is a strong decrease in this indicator: Naryn (-26 p.p.), Issyk-Kul (-25 p.p.), Talas (-17 p.p.) and Batken (-16 p.p.). However, the Chui region has become a new outsider, where only 33% of residents give a positive answer.
As for expectations of changes in personal financial situation, the subindex of this issue fell to 143.8 points, and this is only a fraction of points above the lowest value recorded in August 2023. The share of those who expect their financial situation to improve fell from 60.5 to 57.2%. And here young people under 29 showed the greatest regression in results. If in January 70% of them were optimists, then in February it was already 66%. And yet, youth continues to be the leader among all age groups. The older generation over 60 responded worse than others, among whom only 50% were optimists. In regional terms, the capital went against the general trend, where this figure increased from 48 to 49%. Nevertheless, Bishkek still remains an outsider among all regions. In all other regions there is a decrease in the share of positive responses. This is most noticeable in the Talas region and the Naryn region, where the indicator fell by 12 percentage points and 8 percentage points. The Osh region becomes the leader in February, where the share of positive responses reaches 65%.
The index of conditions for large purchases has reached an anti-record level
The subindex of the favorableness of current conditions for large purchases and expenses decreased by 6.8 points after a record January. It is interesting that the February indicator, on the contrary, turned out to be an anti-record: this subindex has not yet reached 88.6 points in Kyrgyzstan. 30.9% of Kyrgyzstanis gave a positive answer, which is significantly less than the January figure of 36.7%. This time among the age groups, the groups aged 45-59 and 60 years and older emitted more pessimism. Among people aged 45–59 years, the share of positive responses fell from 37 to 28%, and among the oldest generation - from 35 to 21%. This became the lowest value, while the leaders continue to be young people, whose similar figure was 38%. In regional terms, the capital again went against the negative trend, where the share of negative responses fell from 53 to 50%. Nevertheless, Bishkek again remains an outsider among the regions. The largest drop in the share of optimists occurred in the Batken region and the Talas region. In the first, the share of positive responses fell from 44 to 32%, and in the second – from 48 to 30%. The best region in February is the Osh region with the same indicator of 38%.
Inflationary sentiments are falling sharply
Kyrgyzstan's inflation estimates fell sharply in February, reaching new records. If in January 55.3% of Kyrgyzstanis pointed to an acceleration in price growth over the previous 12 months, then in February the figure was 51.3%. Over the past month, estimates and perceptions of strong price growth have fallen even more: 26.8% of respondents note a strong increase in prices, while in January the same figure was 32.6%. It should be noted that official inflation in the country continued to decline in February for the fifth month in a row. During this time, annual inflation slowed sharply: from 9.2% in October to 5.1% in February. In January it was 5.9%.
At the same time, inflation expectations, which were already the lowest in Central Asia, remained at the same levels. The number of those who expect a very strong rise in prices increased slightly over the course of the month from 6 to 6.3%, and over the one-year horizon the share of pessimists increased only from 10.6 to 10.7%.
Among individual goods, we note that Kyrgyzstanis continue to be concerned about the prices of flour, which has held the palm for at least the last six months. In February, the share of those noting an increase in flour prices continued to decline, but it turned out to be insignificant. In January this figure was 56.5%, and in February the figure fell only to 55.2%. It is also interesting to note that the rest of the top 5 products have also remained unchanged for six months in a row. 46.1% of respondents noted vegetable oil, 37.5% – meat and poultry, 37.4% – sugar and salt and 36.6% – vegetables and fruits. However, official statistics continue to disagree with this position. Over the past year, prices for oils and fats have decreased by 10.2%, for sugar, jam, honey and chocolate – by 4.4%, and for vegetables – by 15.9%. On the other hand, prices for fruits increased by 18.7% over the year, and for meat the annual price increase accelerated slightly from 0.9 to 1.2%.
Stable devaluation expectations in Kyrgyzstan
The Kyrgyz som remained virtually unchanged in value in February. The dollar in Kyrgyzstan grew by only 0.11%, which may affect the stability of devaluation expectations, according to this study. If in January 28.9% of residents expected the som to weaken in a year, then in February the share of these fell only to 28.2%. Regarding the growth of the dollar over a one-month horizon, the decrease in the share of pessimists was equally insignificant: from 15.7 to 15.3%. Both figures were the lowest during the study.
The population's credit and deposit confidence has improved slightly, returning to the average values recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023. Over the month, the share of those who believe that the current situation is favorable for obtaining loans increased from 20.5 to 22%. Deposit confidence of Kyrgyzstanis also grew at a similar pace: the share of positive responses increased from 26.5% in January to 28.1% in February. The level of calm among the population has fallen along with consumer confidence: 61.4% of residents believe that now is a calm time, while only 24.8% are worried. Last month these figures were 62.8% and 23.7%, respectively. Residents' expectations for an increase in unemployment rose slightly after four straight months of decline. 27.7% of residents expect it to increase, while in the previous month there were 27.3%.
Tajikistan
The consumer confidence index in Tajikistan in February decreased slightly from 149.6 to 149 points, which stands out positively relative to other Central Asian countries, where a much more noticeable drop was recorded. Nevertheless, in Tajikistan there is a sharp decline in the subindex of favorable conditions for large purchases, which was compensated by an increase in assessments of the current situation both in the economy and in personal financial situation.
Large purchases are no longer so favorable
The subindex of favorableness of current conditions for large purchases fell sharply from 91.9 to 85.1 points, which, however, is not yet an extremely low value within the eight-month period of the study. The share of positive responses among all Tajiks fell from 44.7% in January to 41.9% in February. The largest decrease was observed among the older generation over 60 years of age, where this figure decreased from 48.3 to 37.6%. As a result, the leadership among age groups was taken by young people, whose share of positive answers did not fall so significantly: from 46.6 to 45.6%. In terms of regions, the Sughd region especially stands out, which went against the general trend. There, the share of optimistic residents increased from 39.7 to 43.3%. Nevertheless, Dushanbe continues to remain the leader, where this figure reaches 44.6%. Moreover, a month ago in the capital, exactly half of the respondents gave positive answers. The largest drop is observed in areas of republican significance, where the decrease in the same indicator was almost 9 percentage points. The lowest result is also recorded there – 38.2%.
Record optimism about the economy
The greatest growth among all subindexes was shown by the question related to the assessment of changes in the economic situation over the past 12 months. This subindex increased from 167.7 to 170.7 points, which is a new record in our study. At the same time, the overall share of positive responses did not increase so significantly: from 81.4 to 81.9%. But the share of respondents who chose an unambiguously positive answer increased significantly. This was 65.2% in February versus 59% in January. All age groups showed an improvement in the overall score. The greatest progress is observed in the group of 30–44 years old, where the share of clearly positive answers increased from 60.5 to 69.5%. Thus, this age group took the lead. On the other hand, other age groups did not lag behind that much. Regionally, the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region stands out, where the share of people who noted an improvement in the economy increased from 64.8 to 84.4%. True, this was not enough to take the palm. Districts of republican significance have an indicator of 86% in February. But the progress of the former led to Dushanbe taking last place with a score of 75%. Nevertheless, this still indicates the overwhelming optimism of Tajiks.
Slight increase in inflation estimates and expectations
Inflation estimates and expectations of Tajiks increased slightly in February. Thus, the indicators remain at lower levels than in the fall. 20.1% of respondents noted a strong increase in prices over the past month, while in January there were 18.1%. In addition, the share of those who experienced faster price growth over the past 12 months increased slightly: from 25.1 to 26.2%.
Respondents' inflation expectations also increased slightly. 10.9% of residents expect a very strong rise in prices in the coming month, while in January there were 9.3%. Over the one-year horizon, the share of people expecting faster price growth increased from 10.8 to 11.9%. In general, despite the slight increase in February, the figures are still tens of percentage points lower than those recorded in September last year.
Inflation data for February has not yet been released, but annual inflation in January remained unchanged at 3.8% in December. Among individual goods, prices for flour continue to worry residents of Tajikistan the most. However, the share of those who mentioned flour decreased from 45.2 to 40.7%, which is the lowest value in the last six months. Vegetable oil, meat and poultry also made it into the top 3 for the second month in a row. 27.8% noticed a strong increase in prices for vegetable oil, and 23.7% for meat and poultry. If for vegetable oil there is a decrease in the number of responses, then for meat, on the contrary, there has been an increase. Note that, according to official statistics, in January prices for flour fell by 1.3% m/m, while for vegetable oil the monthly price increase was 1.3% m/m, and for meat and meat products – 0.3 % mm.
Significant increase in credit and deposit trust
Devaluation expectations in Tajikistan in February remained at the same levels, showing a slight increase. Let us note that the dollar to somoni exchange rate has continued to remain at approximately the same levels throughout the last year. The share of those who expect the national currency to weaken increased from 14.6 to 15.6% during the month, and 24.7% of the country’s population expects weakening within one year (24.5% in January).
The credit and deposit confidence indices showed multidirectional movements. 38.6% of the country's residents believe that now is a bad time to get loans, although in January the figure was 42.3%. On the contrary, for deposits there is a decrease in the share of positive responses. The question of whether the current time is favorable for deposits fell from 59.8 to 55.6%. The level of calm has increased: 87.2% of residents say that now is a calm time, while in January this was 83.1%. Unemployment expectations rose after four straight months of decline. 24.6% of respondents expect an increase in unemployment compared to 22.6% in January.
Conclusions
February 2024 generally turned out to be negative for the countries of Central Asia, in terms of consumer confidence dynamics. In three countries at once, the CCI index noticeably decreased by several points compared to January. Only Tajikistan stands apart, where the decrease in the already high indicator turned out to be insignificant. However, all four countries continue to remain in the positive zone above 100 points. Only Kazakhstan was slightly above this neutral line, while in other countries a significant majority of respondents continue to give positive answers to the questions asked.
The largest decline in consumer confidence in February occurred in Uzbekistan, where much fewer people began to positively assess actual and projected economic growth. Also in Uzbekistan, far fewer people noticed an improvement in their personal financial situation. The main drivers of the decline were residents aged 45 years and older. Also in Kyrgyzstan, a significant drop in consumer confidence is recorded, which turned out to be the lowest since August last year. Here, too, there is more pessimism regarding the issue of improving personal financial situation. In addition, the assessment of the favorableness of current conditions for large purchases has greatly decreased. Unlike Uzbekistan, in Kyrgyzstan the main driver of the decline was youth under 29 years of age.
In Tajikistan, the assessment of the favorable conditions for large purchases also dropped noticeably. However, in two other questions regarding improvements in personal financial situation and the economy, residents showed an increase in positivity. As a result, Tajikistan remains the region’s leader in consumer confidence. In Kazakhstan, the decline was not as significant as in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, but the index came close to the neutral border. What’s interesting is that in Kazakhstan, young people are showing dynamics against the general trend, while people of older ages have dragged overall consumer confidence down. Regionally, there is a much greater contradiction in the dynamics of results than in other countries.
Inflation estimates and expectations of residents of Central Asian countries remained largely at approximately the same levels after a sharp decline in January. Kyrgyzstan performed best in terms of inflation, where residents’ inflationary perceptions continued to decline amid a sharp slowdown in official inflation. On the other hand, in Kazakhstan, inflation estimates and perceptions increased slightly, as did monthly inflation, which showed acceleration in February. Thus, more time is needed to note a decisive change in inflation expectations. In Tajikistan, inflation rates also increased, but not as significantly as in Kazakhstan. And overall they remain one of the smallest in the region, along with Kyrgyzstan. In Uzbekistan, inflation sentiments and expectations for the most part decreased slightly, consolidating January's success.
Nevertheless, devaluation expectations in Uzbekistan showed a noticeable increase, especially relative to its regional neighbors. In terms of the weakening of the som, a record value is observed throughout the year, and in the horizon of one month the highest indicator since July 2023. In Kazakhstan, a slight increase in devaluation expectations is also recorded, which, nevertheless, did not turn out to be higher than December values. In Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, the share of pessimists changed slightly compared to January. These countries continue to be the best in the region, in terms of preserving the value of their national currencies.
The eighth wave of the survey on consumer confidence of the population of four Central Asian countries demonstrated a noticeable increase in pessimism in the issue of consumer confidence. True, it continues to remain in the positive zone in all four countries, and in all countries except Kazakhstan, the share of positive answers still significantly exceeds the share of negative answers from respondents. Whether this widespread decline is a one-off or the beginning of a new trend will be known in the next waves of the study.
Regarding inflation expectations and sentiments, which fell sharply in January, Central Asians generally remained unconvinced. Small growth in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan does not significantly spoil the overall inflation picture. At the same time, inflation has officially been slowing down in all countries for several months in a row. True, in different countries certain goods and services cause great concern among the population. For example, in Kazakhstan these are housing and communal services, and in Uzbekistan fuel and fuels and lubricants. Targeted work by the state and business on certain goods and services, as well as food, can significantly improve the consumer confidence of residents of the region.
Daniyar Orazbayev, the Analyst of Freedom Finance Global
